Trading Room (Forex, Equities & Commodities)
#41
Posted 06 July 2009 - 01:57 PM
This is time consuming part, but can also be fun. For me the real fun it testing out what I come up with in my time watching charts, but before we can test, we need an idea. How I generate ideas is by watching charts, both past and real-time. No matter what time frame I make my charts, I look for moves where there was good money to be made. Once I have found a move that looks profitable I start to ask myself questions about it:
-What precipitated the move?
-Was it a chart pattern, a candlestick pattern, a news event or certain time of day? These are samples of the questions you want to attempt to answer.
-Where could I enter?
-How could I have gotten into the trade?
-Looking at my answers from above, how could I take advantage of this opportunity in real-time?
-Does the pattern I am watching give an entry signal such as a break out of resistance/support/pattern, a certain amount of movement before it takes off, a certain time of day, a short term reversal pattern?
-Are there any indicators that aid in this?
-Does the currency pair generally stay within an average range for the day?
-Look for anything that would allow you to enter into the big move as it is happening.
-Where could I exit?
-This is very important - more important than the entry!
-What signals are present once the move has topped or bottomed and started to reverse?
-How can you stay in the move to capture the bulk of it, but also not give up too much profit when it reverses?
-Are there any indicators that aid in this?
-Would a trailing stop have allowed me to capture a large profit? If so, what should my trailing stop be?
-Would a fixed number profit target work (ie. if stop is $100, then profit target is $350)
-Does the currency pair generally stay within a certain percentage move for the day?
-Money management - is the trade worth taking?
-From the entry point you identify, what is your risk in dollars based on your position size?
-What is your potential profit?
-Based on the above two answers, was the trade worth taking? If the risk is too large, or you are getting into moves too late you will need to adjust. If you are giving up too much profit when prices reverse, you will also need to adjust.
-Other things to consider
-Does this signal you identify for entry occur at other times, and not just before large moves? I.e are you going to get a lot of false signals?
-Can you cut down on false signals by only trading a certain time of day, adding indicators, or pattern filters?
In short, you want to analyze your charts and look at them as opportunities. Then examine those opportunities and construct how you turn those opportunities into real money in your pocket, without exposing yourself to excessive risk. Once you have gone through several opportunities in this fashion you will be well on your way to making it a profitable strategy. See if the strategy worked on recent movements, and if it works on upcoming movements. If it does, then start testing it in real-time.

All in Shasha!!!!
#43
Posted 06 July 2009 - 02:24 PM
This is time consuming part, but can also be fun. For me the real fun it testing out what I come up with in my time watching charts, but before we can test, we need an idea. How I generate ideas is by watching charts, both past and real-time. No matter what time frame I make my charts, I look for moves where there was good money to be made. Once I have found a move that looks profitable I start to ask myself questions about it:
-What precipitated the move?
-Was it a chart pattern, a candlestick pattern, a news event or certain time of day? These are samples of the questions you want to attempt to answer.
-Where could I enter?
-How could I have gotten into the trade?
-Looking at my answers from above, how could I take advantage of this opportunity in real-time?
-Does the pattern I am watching give an entry signal such as a break out of resistance/support/pattern, a certain amount of movement before it takes off, a certain time of day, a short term reversal pattern?
-Are there any indicators that aid in this?
-Does the currency pair generally stay within an average range for the day?
-Look for anything that would allow you to enter into the big move as it is happening.
-Where could I exit?
-This is very important - more important than the entry!
-What signals are present once the move has topped or bottomed and started to reverse?
-How can you stay in the move to capture the bulk of it, but also not give up too much profit when it reverses?
-Are there any indicators that aid in this?
-Would a trailing stop have allowed me to capture a large profit? If so, what should my trailing stop be?
-Would a fixed number profit target work (ie. if stop is $100, then profit target is $350)
-Does the currency pair generally stay within a certain percentage move for the day?
-Money management - is the trade worth taking?
-From the entry point you identify, what is your risk in dollars based on your position size?
-What is your potential profit?
-Based on the above two answers, was the trade worth taking? If the risk is too large, or you are getting into moves too late you will need to adjust. If you are giving up too much profit when prices reverse, you will also need to adjust.
-Other things to consider
-Does this signal you identify for entry occur at other times, and not just before large moves? I.e are you going to get a lot of false signals?
-Can you cut down on false signals by only trading a certain time of day, adding indicators, or pattern filters?
In short, you want to analyze your charts and look at them as opportunities. Then examine those opportunities and construct how you turn those opportunities into real money in your pocket, without exposing yourself to excessive risk. Once you have gone through several opportunities in this fashion you will be well on your way to making it a profitable strategy. See if the strategy worked on recent movements, and if it works on upcoming movements. If it does, then start testing it in real-time.
These are very helpful guidelines especially for some of us newbies, thanks so much! I am certainly going to try some of those and test them in real-time as you said.
-Can you cut down on false signals by only trading a certain time of day, adding indicators, or pattern filters? I have noticed the Euro/USD and GBP/USD have bigger trends either up or down between 7am and 8am depending on the market events but i always miss the opportunity ( yes...i adore my sleep that much!!!). So i think i am going to adopt 'early bird' strategy.
#44
Posted 06 July 2009 - 03:00 PM
This is time consuming part, but can also be fun. For me the real fun it testing out what I come up with in my time watching charts, but before we can test, we need an idea. How I generate ideas is by watching charts, both past and real-time. No matter what time frame I make my charts, I look for moves where there was good money to be made. Once I have found a move that looks profitable I start to ask myself questions about it:
-What precipitated the move?
-Was it a chart pattern, a candlestick pattern, a news event or certain time of day? These are samples of the questions you want to attempt to answer.
-Where could I enter?
-How could I have gotten into the trade?
-Looking at my answers from above, how could I take advantage of this opportunity in real-time?
-Does the pattern I am watching give an entry signal such as a break out of resistance/support/pattern, a certain amount of movement before it takes off, a certain time of day, a short term reversal pattern?
-Are there any indicators that aid in this?
-Does the currency pair generally stay within an average range for the day?
-Look for anything that would allow you to enter into the big move as it is happening.
-Where could I exit?
-This is very important - more important than the entry!
-What signals are present once the move has topped or bottomed and started to reverse?
-How can you stay in the move to capture the bulk of it, but also not give up too much profit when it reverses?
-Are there any indicators that aid in this?
-Would a trailing stop have allowed me to capture a large profit? If so, what should my trailing stop be?
-Would a fixed number profit target work (ie. if stop is $100, then profit target is $350)
-Does the currency pair generally stay within a certain percentage move for the day?
-Money management - is the trade worth taking?
-From the entry point you identify, what is your risk in dollars based on your position size?
-What is your potential profit?
-Based on the above two answers, was the trade worth taking? If the risk is too large, or you are getting into moves too late you will need to adjust. If you are giving up too much profit when prices reverse, you will also need to adjust.
-Other things to consider
-Does this signal you identify for entry occur at other times, and not just before large moves? I.e are you going to get a lot of false signals?
-Can you cut down on false signals by only trading a certain time of day, adding indicators, or pattern filters?
In short, you want to analyze your charts and look at them as opportunities. Then examine those opportunities and construct how you turn those opportunities into real money in your pocket, without exposing yourself to excessive risk. Once you have gone through several opportunities in this fashion you will be well on your way to making it a profitable strategy. See if the strategy worked on recent movements, and if it works on upcoming movements. If it does, then start testing it in real-time.
Awesome post, the best way to learn reading charts, cant get better advise than this.
The other useful thing as well is to print the charts and scribble some of the above notes on them, circle the charts patterns that initiated the move, draw lines of S/R. Practice, practice and practice.
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#45
Posted 06 July 2009 - 03:02 PM
Thanks, but its guys like yu who make it a valuable thread, by throwing in some useful info..keep them coming.
NAKED is the way to go..but i am not a Nudist..LOL
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#46
Posted 06 July 2009 - 05:00 PM
-Can you cut down on false signals by only trading a certain time of day, adding indicators, or pattern filters? I have noticed the Euro/USD and GBP/USD have bigger trends either up or down between 7am and 8am depending on the market events but i always miss the opportunity ( yes...i adore my sleep that much!!!). So i think i am going to adopt 'early bird' strategy.

.The Real Pemt.
.No fugazy.
A Japanese proverb states that: "For a Samurai to be brave, he must have a bit of Black blood." Another recording of the proverb is: "Half the blood in one's veins must be Black to make a good Samurai." Sakanouye Tamura Maro, a Black man, became the first Shogun of Japan.
#48
Posted 07 July 2009 - 12:01 PM
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#49
Posted 07 July 2009 - 12:05 PM
I think they are a couple of people here who spread bet, its tax free
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#50
Posted 07 July 2009 - 12:10 PM
THANKS TRADER FOR OPENING THIS. YOUR METHOD WORKS BUT.....................ndichambofunga.
#52
Posted 07 July 2009 - 12:50 PM
THANKS TRADER FOR OPENING THIS. YOUR METHOD WORKS BUT.....................ndichambofunga.
Let us know your weakness and we can work together, there are some nice people here who have knowledge of the markets. We ve all lost money before we started to pull in some decent profits. I made a U turn from losing money when i stopped searching for the Holy Grail but instead focused on my mental attitude and learning how price moves in on areas of S/R. I reduced my trading to high probability trades only, i stopped chasing trades, I stopped taking profits quickly, I stopped wanting to know what the mkt will do next, I stopped hoping and praying.
You will make U turn, but be prepared to put loads of hours into studying the markets, books might help yu, but the real deal is to study price action.
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#53
Posted 07 July 2009 - 12:54 PM
Personally i think the Cable still have room to move to 1.6300 area and the eur/usd might consolidate for a few hours.
Thats just my opinion, but just trade what price tells you.
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#54
Posted 07 July 2009 - 01:19 PM
THANKS TRADER FOR OPENING THIS. YOUR METHOD WORKS BUT.....................ndichambofunga.
Remember markets move up and down becoz of pressure from buyers and sellers respectively. So as a trader you have to understand the rising and falling principle of the market. Buyers are more forceful above areas of support and sellers are more forceful below areas of resistance, so if the market is showing strength from support that means buyers are being more aggressive than sellers, so it doesn’t save your interest if you try to sell into this strong force from buyers...vice versa for resistance.
When price is at support and the buyers fail to push the market higher, what does this insinuate? This means that sellers are showing their dominance in the buyers territory, so a seller will have an advantage thus support breaks and the market moves lower..vice versa for resistance.
When sellers are pushing the markets lower, that means that areas of support are more likely to break than hold and as they push the market down, they form barriers of resistance where you can place your trailing stop loss to take advantage of the big push down..vice versa for buyers
Some people say that the markets are random, but if yu learn to read price, you will have a different opinion about that, you will be able to see a degree of order in the market. This is a skill which takes a couple of years to master on your own, but might be easier when you have a mentor who is well experienced on reading price action.
As a trader you mustn’t let that up and down movement of the market scare you, there is a degree of order in that up and down and S/R will guide you in your price analysis. Do not over think just go with the flow
If you day trade you can use what i call a Follow through strategy, that means trading in the direction of the intraday trend taking note of S/R. Lets say the day starts and the market breaks down, just sell rallies and when the market breaks up for the day just buy pullbacks...yu will rarely lose $$$$$. I will throw in a chart later about this strategy. Go back to your charts and backtest it and then trade it real time, you will able to make several hundred dollars a day depending on your account size. Hope that helps
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#55
Posted 07 July 2009 - 02:13 PM
-Can you cut down on false signals by only trading a certain time of day, adding indicators, or pattern filters? I have noticed the Euro/USD and GBP/USD have bigger trends either up or down between 7am and 8am depending on the market events but i always miss the opportunity ( yes...i adore my sleep that much!!!). So i think i am going to adopt 'early bird' strategy.
You can create your own strategy or develop on this one i`ve seen on Babypips:Draw two lines one at 19:00 London time and 1 at 05:00 London time
You now have your overnight time frame
Draw 2 lines one at the highest price between the 2 overnight times and one at the lows
Now count 6 pips above the highest price and set a pending order to buy there
Now count 6 pips below the lows and set a sell order at that price
really what you want to do with your SL TP TS is up to you i risk no more than 30 pips only had 2 hits in 6 months at that figure more importantly you choice what TP TS you want, i go for small pips some might want to go for it
its important that these pending orders are set 5am London time otherwise you will miss out most probably and once the first trade has taken place i cancel the other, it makes my day short and sweat.

All in Shasha!!!!
#56
Posted 07 July 2009 - 03:02 PM
is it possible to use all the forex trading methods to spread bet, ie use technical analysis to base your bets.
any other advantages of spread betting over fx trading
#57
Posted 07 July 2009 - 03:07 PM
You now have your overnight time frame
Draw 2 lines one at the highest price between the 2 overnight times and one at the lows
Now count 6 pips above the highest price and set a pending order to buy there
Now count 6 pips below the lows and set a sell order at that price
really what you want to do with your SL TP TS is up to you i risk no more than 30 pips only had 2 hits in 6 months at that figure more importantly you choice what TP TS you want, i go for small pips some might want to go for it
its important that these pending orders are set 5am London time otherwise you will miss out most probably and once the first trade has taken place i cancel the other, it makes my day short and sweat.
I have used it before only on Cable, but I had multiple positions, taking partial profits on one position and letting the other positions turn into a swing trade.
Another nice simple strategy is the Cowabunga from babypips, no need to backtest it coz the guy on babypips has done a great job, he has been trading it live since 2007. I think now he has vedios on youtube. These are systems a newtrader can use whilst they learn how the markets move in order to develope their own system
Some traders will take other traders systems and twick them a bit to suit their risk tolerance and personality. It doesnt whether you developed the system or used someone elses as long as you are making $$$$ that the most important goal.
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trad...nga-system.html
http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pip-my-syste...e_school_o.html
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_quer...9&oq=cowabu
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#58
Posted 07 July 2009 - 03:20 PM
any other advantages of spread betting over fx trading
http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/Fo...ing-spread.html
The trading technics are still the same, the only difference is the spreads used by different brokers and the prices for the markets differs by a few pips
Advantages of SB - Tax free, no commission, no charges to use charting package, requires a small amount of money to open an account
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#59
Posted 07 July 2009 - 03:30 PM
The trading technics are still the same, the only difference is the spreads used by different brokers and the prices for the markets differs by a few pips
Advantages of SB - Tax free, no commission, no charges to use charting package, requires a small amount of money to open an account
FX is 24 hours so you can also place an order whenever you feel like!!
#60
Posted 07 July 2009 - 03:34 PM
You now have your overnight time frame
Draw 2 lines one at the highest price between the 2 overnight times and one at the lows
Now count 6 pips above the highest price and set a pending order to buy there
Now count 6 pips below the lows and set a sell order at that price
really what you want to do with your SL TP TS is up to you i risk no more than 30 pips only had 2 hits in 6 months at that figure more importantly you choice what TP TS you want, i go for small pips some might want to go for it
its important that these pending orders are set 5am London time otherwise you will miss out most probably and once the first trade has taken place i cancel the other, it makes my day short and sweat.
Will give this one a try! Cheers
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